Did we learn nothing from Summerhall?

Three arguments for why the tragedy at Summerhall is probably significant in the grand scheme of things:

  1. The argument from elision;
  2. The argument from publication history;
  3. The argument from symbolism.

The argument from elision

Every educated person in Westeros probably knows about the tragedy at Summerhall. It's a comparatively recent dramatic event that affected the fate of House Targaryen (King Aegon V. and his heir were killed there; Prince Rhaegar was born there); there is at least one popular song about it (Jenny's song); and there are even characters in the books that were alive at the time (e.g. Maester Aemon). Yet all we hear about it, in a series that revels in memories of the past, are a few tantalizing hints: Alester Florent lamenting "Did we learn nothing from Summerhall?" (ASoS, Davos III), the Ghost of High Heart saying she "gorged on grief at Summerhall" (ASoS, Arya VIII), and Daenerys musing about the "shadow of Summerhall" that haunted her brother Rhaegar (ASoS, Daenerys IV).

While this in itself would be nothing out of the usual for the series, the treatment that the tragedy gets in The World of Ice and Fire is more revealing. Here, the author uses the conceit that Archmaester Gyldayn's report of the events is mostly blotted out by ink except for -- again -- tantalizing hints about "seven eggs, to honor the seven gods", "pyromancers" and "wildfire". This is not only a very weak explanation given the number both of likely survivors and of witnesses to the events before the tragedy, if not the tragedy itself, but also a marked departure from the rest of the book. This indicates that there is information about Summerhall that is known to at least some of the characters, but yet to be revealed to the readers, most likely in order to make the endgame of the series harder to guess.

The argument from publication history

The tragedy at Summerhall was first mentioned in "A Storm of Swords", published in 2000. However, one of the tragedy's protagonists (and likely its instigator) appeared in the very first Westeros story published after A Game of Thrones, the first "Dunk and Egg" novella The Hedge Knight (1998): Aegon Targaeryen, called "Egg" and later dubbed Aegon V, "the Unlikely". Since then, the backstory of Aegon V has been expanded in two further novellas, The Sworn Sword (2003) and The Mystery Knight (2010) -- the last of which also includes the first in-person appearance of Egg's great-uncle Bloodraven, who later allies with the Children of the Forest to become the Three-Eyed Crow.

The fact that George R.R. Martin's second story cycle set in Westeros focuses on the central figure of the Summerhall tragedy is suggestive enough. That Aegon V's back story might be more relevant to the main series than immediately apparent could also explain why the fourth volume in the "Dunk and Egg" cycle -- The She-Wolves of Winterfell, scheduled for publication in 2013 -- was put on hold mid-writing by GRRM, "until I've delivered THE WINDS OF WINTER" (source). All of this might of course be coincidence -- the Dunk & Egg cycle might just be a particularly appealing storytelling opportunity for GRRM, close enough to the main series for some crossovers but sufficiently removed to not interfere; and the fourth novella might really just not have been finished in time for the anthology it was intended for, and put on hold so Martin could focus on TWoW -- but combined with the other clues it does seem that there might be more going on.

The argument from symbolism

The name is Summerhall (as opposed to, say, Winterfell), and it's associated with fire. 'Nuff said.

...or maybe not quite: It's also associated with the Targaryens, the fickle newcomers (latest in a long line of invaders, from the point of view of the Children of the Forest), as opposed to Winterfell, which is associated with the Starks, the stable descendants of the First Men (aka first invaders). The First Men and the Children (or at least one faction of them) made a deal back in the Long Night. The Targaryens, on the other hand, are an active threat.

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